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Live forecasts update automatically; written guidance last reviewed 20 June 2026 by the BritView weather desk. Data from national met services via Open-Meteo.
Sudden stratospheric warming is a rapid temperature rise high above the North Pole that can weaken the polar vortex, often leading to cold, snowy outbreaks across the UK in late winter or early spring. It is one of the most dramatic atmospheric events affecting the British Isles.
What causes sudden stratospheric warming?
It happens when large-scale weather patterns in the lower atmosphere — such as strong high-pressure systems — send energy upwards into the stratosphere. This energy disturbs the normally stable polar vortex, sometimes reversing its circulation entirely. The result is a dramatic warming of the stratosphere by up to 50°C over a few days. These UK weather events are still being studied, but they typically occur once every two or three winters.
How does it affect the UK?
When the polar vortex weakens or splits, cold Arctic air can spill southwards. The UK often experiences a delayed response of around two weeks, bringing a heightened risk of heavy snow and prolonged cold spells. The consequences can be severe, with transport disruption and increased strain on energy supplies. Recent examples include the “Beast from the East” in 2018, a classic sudden stratospheric warming consequence. For the latest on sudden stratospheric warming, forecasts are watched closely by the Met Office during late winter.
When do sudden stratospheric warming events occur?
They almost always happen between November and March, with a peak in January and February. The list of sudden stratospheric warming events shows that late-winter occurrences are most likely to steer cold air towards the UK.
Can sudden stratospheric warming be predicted?
Yes, up to one to two weeks in advance using computer models that track stratospheric temperatures and winds. Real-time alerts are issued when a sudden stratospheric warming is likely, giving Cold Weather Payment triggers a head start.
Will there be a sudden stratospheric warming in 2025 or 2026?
Forecasts for specific winters are not reliable more than a few weeks ahead. However, researchers monitor long-range signals; a sudden stratospheric warming 2025 or sudden stratospheric warming 2026 event is possible but cannot be confirmed until much closer to the time.